Tentados por la posibilidad que brinda la banca móvil para ofrecer servicios mejorados a sus clientes, cerca de un tercio de las organizaciones financieras más grandes del mundo están pensando en lanzar servicios de banca móvil entre en un plazo no superior a 24 meses, de acuerdo con una reciente encuesta encargada por Sybase 365, una filial de Sybase, Inc. (NYSE: SY), líder global en servicios de mensajería móvil.
La encuesta, realizada por la empresa de investigaciones independientes Loudhouse, analizó la visión de 92 de las principales instituciones financieras del mundo (32 bancos europeos, 30 bancos de los Estados Unidos y 30 bancos de la zona Asia-Pacífico).
Los resultados pusieron de manifiesto que el 66 por ciento de los bancos consideran la banca móvil como una excelente oportunidad para mejorar el actual servicio al cliente. Aunque la prestación de este tipo de servicios está muy avanzada en Europa y la zona Asia-Pacífico con respecto a los Estados Unidos, se espera que el crecimiento sea mayor en América, donde un 53 por ciento de los bancos encuestados esperan lanzar servicios de banca móvil en los próximos 24 pesos.
“Los factores clave para las instituciones financieras que ofrecen banca móvil no son sólo comerciales, en el sentido de reducir costes o generar beneficios,” ha comentado Matthew Talbot, vicepresidente de mCommerce de Sybase 365. “La banca móvil nos brinda oportunidades únicas para interactuar con y retener a clientes.”
Este creciente impulso podría animar a los consumidores que respondieron a la encuesta sobre banca móvil de Sybase 365 en 2007, ya que el 33 por ciento de los consultados expresó la intención de gestionar sus finanzas en movimiento. Un elemento clave que está incrementando la adopción, tal y como se refleja en el estudio de 2007, es el nivel de conocimiento que los clientes tienen de los servicios de banca móvil. Parece que los bancos están reaccionando a esta falta de conocimiento, ya que un 65 por ciento de los bancos que ya ofrecen servicio de banca móvil afirman que el presupuesto de marketing y actividades destinadas incrementar su notoriedad forman parte de su plan estratégico para 2008.
Los servicios de banca móvil más comunes a disposición de los clientes son: consulta del estado de cuentas (ofrecido por el 87 por ciento de los bancos con servicios de banca móvil), alertas de movimientos (77 por ciento), transferencias (74 por ciento) y alertas de disponible (71 por ciento). Para los bancos que ofrecen estos servicios, los principales motivos para hacerlo son: mejorar la experiencia del cliente (87 por ciento), ampliar los servicios que ofrecen a través de la banca por Internet (81 por ciento) y para conseguir ventajas competitivas (71 por ciento).
www.sybase.com
viernes, 16 de mayo de 2008
jueves, 15 de mayo de 2008
Examining Cartel War Violence Trough a Protective Intelligence Lens
May 14, 2008
By Fred Burton and Scott Stewart
Mexico’s long and violent drug cartel war has recently intensified. The past week witnessed the killings of no fewer than six senior police officials. One of those killed was Edgar Millan Gomez, acting head of the Mexican federal police and the highest-ranking federal cop in Mexico. Millan Gomez was shot to death May 8 just after entering his home in Mexico City.
Within the past few days, six suspects have been arrested in connection with his murder. One of the ringleaders is said to be a former federal highway police officer. The suspects appear to have ties to the Sinaloa cartel. In fact, Millan Gomez was responsible for a police operation in January that led to the arrest of Alfredo Beltran Leyva, the cartel’s second-in-command. Mexican police believe Beltran Leyva’s brother Arturo (who is also a significant player in the Sinaloa cartel structure) commissioned the hit.
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During the same time period, violence from the cartel war has visited the family of Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman Loera, the Sinaloa cartel leader who has the distinction of being Mexico’s most-wanted drug kingpin. On May 8, Guzman Loera’s son Edgar Guzman Beltran and two companions were killed by a large-scale ambush as they left a shopping mall in Culiacan, Sinaloa.
In addition to discussing the geopolitical implications of this escalation in the violence, we thought it would be instructive to look at the recent wave of violence through the lens of protective intelligence. Such an effort can allow us not only to see what lessons can be learned from the attacks, but also provide insight on how similar attacks can be avoided in the future, which is the real aim of protective intelligence.
Tactical Details of the Recent Attacks
On the evening of May 1, Roberto Velasco Bravo, director of investigations against organized crime for Mexico’s state public security police (SSP), was gunned down as he returned to his Mexico City home. Two assailants reportedly approached Velasco Bravo as he parked his sport utility vehicle and shot him in the head at close range before fleeing the scene. Although the incident initially was believed to have been a robbery attempt gone bad, the discovery of a .380 caliber handgun fitted with a suppressor near the crime scene suggests the shooting was actually a professionally targeted assassination. Local press also reported that Velasco Bravo died on his day off and that his bodyguard had been ordered to stand down because he was planning to travel outside the city.
On May 2, less than 24 hours after the Velasco Bravo shooting, inspector Jose Aristeo Gomez Martinez, the administrative director of the Federal Preventative Police (PFP), was gunned down in front of his home in the wealthy Coyoacan neighborhood of Mexico City. Gomez Martinez and a woman were talking in front of the house around midnight when two armed men surprised them and reportedly attempted to force Gomez Martinez into the back seat of his own car. Gomez Martinez struggled with the men and was shot in the arm and chest. Mexican authorities say the motive for the Gomez Martinez killing remains murky. However, the circumstances surrounding the case –- he was shot with a suppressed .380 pistol outside of his residence — are certainly very similar to the Velasco Bravo and Millan Gomez killings.
In the Millan Gomez attack, alleged members of a murder-for-hire gang shot and killed the federal police chief as he returned to his home in the early hours of the morning. Millan Gomez was reportedly shot eight times at close range by a gunman armed with two handguns — one of which was a .380 with a suppressor. The gunman was reportedly waiting inside Millan Gomez’s apartment building. The victim apparently struggled with his assailant and attempted to grab the suppressed weapon from the gunman. During the struggle, the gunman reportedly shot Millan Gomez in the hand once with the suppressed weapon and then several times in the torso with his back-up weapon, which was not suppressed. Millan Gomez’s two-man protection team, who had just dropped him off at the door, heard the nonsuppressed shots and returned to the apartment building to investigate. One member of the protection team was wounded in the chest by the fleeing gunman, but the team was able to w ound and apprehend him alive. The interrogation of the gunman and the investigation of the equipment and other items found in his possession led to the recent arrest of the five other suspects allegedly tied to the assassination gang.
Also on May 8, Edgar Guzman Beltran, the son of Sinaloa cartel leader Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman Loera, was killed at 8:50 p.m. local time in Culiacan, Sinaloa state. Guzman Beltran was leaving a local shopping mall with two friends — one of whom was Arturo Meza Cazares, the son of Blanca Margarita Cazares Salazar, reputed to be the cartel’s top money launderer — when the three were caught in a heavy hail of gunfire. Reports from the scene indicate that the team that attacked Guzman Beltran may have involved as many as 40 gunmen from a rival cartel who opened up on the three men with AK-47 rifles and a rocket-propelled grenade launcher. Other reports put the number of ambushers at around 20. In any event, even 20 men armed with AKs and a rocket-propelled grenade launcher is a significant force, and something one would expect to see in a war zone such as Iraq or Afghanista n rather than in Mexico.
On May 9, Esteban Robles Espinosa, commander of Mexico City’s investigative police force, was attacked by a group of armed men shortly after he left his house at about 8:30 a.m. Four gunmen traveling in a truck and another in a compact car opened fire on him at an intersection near his home. The attack appears to be a classic vehicular ambush involving a blocking vehicle and an assault team. Robles Espinosa apparently attempted to avoid the attacks and flee the site, but his escape attempt ended when his vehicle struck a tree. Robles Espinosa was shot seven times — four times in the throat, once in the neck, and twice in the head. He died shortly after arriving at a hospital. Authorities reportedly found 20 casings from 9mm and .40 caliber cartridges at the scene of the attack. The placement of the shots in this case appears to be uncharacteristically controlled for Mexico, where victims are normally wounded in various parts of their bodies. The concentration of wounds in the head and neck would appear to indicate that at least one of the shooters was an accomplished marksman. The shot placement might also indicate that Robles Espinosa was wearing a protective vest, and the assailants, being aware of the vest, directed their fire toward his head.
Common Themes
The Millan Gomez, Velasco Bravo and Gomez Martinez shootings were all similar in that they involved suppressed .380 handguns and were intended to be clean and discreetly conducted events. They stand in stark contrast to many of the cartel killings in Mexico, which tend to be more like the killings of Beltran Guzman and involve massive firepower and very little precision or discretion. Even though the Millan Gomez killing got messy, and the shooter was caught, it was intended to be a very quiet, surgical hit — until Murphy’s law kicked in for the assassin.
It is notable that the killing of the four police officials all occurred in proximity to their homes, and that all four attacks were conducted during an arrival or departure at the home. It has long been common for terrorists and criminal kidnappers or assassins to focus on the home or office of their prospective target, because these are known locations that the potential victim frequently visits with some regularity. Also, homes are often preferable to offices, because they usually have less security, and criminals or terrorists can operate around them more easily and with less chance of being caught. Arrivals and departures are prime times for attacks, because the target is generally easier to locate and quickly acquire when on foot or in a car than when in a building.
Furthermore, the objective of preoperational surveillance is to detect the target’s patterns and vulnerabilities so that an attack can be planned. Historically, one of the most likely times for an attack to occur is when a potential victim is leaving from or returning to a known location. The most predictable move traditionally is the home-to-office move; however, the team that conducted the surveillance on Velasco Bravo, Gomez Martinez and Millan Gomez apparently found them to be predictable in their evening moves and planned the attacks accordingly. Robles Espinosa was attacked during the more-stereotypical morning move. Attacking in the evening could also give the assailants the cover of darkness. The low-key assassination cell behind the Velasco Bravo, Gomez Martinez and Millan Gomez attacks seemed to prefer that kind of cover. It is also possible that in the Guzman Beltran case, the shoppi ng mall was a known place for him to frequent and that he had established a pattern of visiting there in the evening.
All five of the attacks also occurred in close proximity to vehicles. Millan Gomez, Gomez Martinez and Guzman Beltran were attacked while outside their vehicles; Robles Espinosa and Vellasco Bravo were attacked while in theirs, though neither of the men had an armored vehicle.
Protective Intelligence Lessons
A former federal police officer was arrested in connection with the Millan Gomez case, and he was found to have a list of license plates and home addresses; but such information alone is not enough to plan an assassination. Extensive preoperational surveillance is also required. From the careful planning of the Velasco Bravo, Gomez Martinez and Millan Gomez hits, it is apparent that the targets were under surveillance for a prolonged period of time. The fact that Robles Espinosa was hit during his morning move from home to work also tends to indicate that he had an established pattern that had been picked up by surveillance. Even in the Guzman Beltran killing, one does not amass a team of 20 or 40 assassins at the drop of a hat. Clearly, the operation was planned and the target had been watched.
The fact that surveillance was conducted in each of these cases means that the people conducting that surveillance were forced to expose themselves to detection. Furthermore, preoperational surveillance is normally not that sophisticated, since people rarely look for it. This means that had countersurveillance efforts been used these efforts likely would have been detected, especially since countersurveillance efforts often focus on known, predictable locations such as the home and office.
Another important lesson is that bodyguards and armored cars are no guarantee of protection in and of themselves. Assailants can look for and exploit vulnerabilities — as they did in the Velasco Bravo and Millan Gomez cases — if they are allowed to conduct surveillance at will and are given the opportunity to thoroughly assess the protective security program. Even if there are security measures in place, malefactors may choose to attack in spite of security and, in such a case, will do so with adequate resources to overcome those security measures. If there are protective agents, the attackers will plan to neutralize them first. If there is an armored vehicle, they will find ways to defeat the armor — something easily accomplished with the rocket-propelled grenades, LAW rockets and .50 caliber sniper rifles found in the arsenals of Mexican cartels.
Unfortunately, many people believe that the presence of armed bodyguards — or armed guards combined with armored vehicles — provides absolute security. This macho misconception is not confined to Latin America, but is pervasive there. Frankly, when we consider the size of the assault team employed in the Guzman Beltran hit (even if it consisted of only 20 men) and their armaments, there are very few protective details in the world sufficiently trained and equipped to deal with that level of threat. Executive protection teams and armored cars provide very little protection against dozens of attackers armed with AK rifles and rocket-propelled grenades, especially if the attackers are given free rein to conduct surveillance and plan their attack.
Indeed, many people — including police and executive protection personnel — either lack or fail to employ good observation skills. These skills are every bit as important as marksmanship — if not more — but are rarely taught or practiced. Additionally, even if a protection agent observes something unusual, in many cases there is no system in place to record these observations and no efficient way to communicate them or to compare them to the observations of others. There is often no process to investigate such observations in attempt to determine if they are indicators of something untoward.
The real counter to such a threat is heightened security awareness and a robust countersurveillance program, coupled with careful route and schedule analysis. Routes and traveling times must be varied, surveillance must be looked for and those conducting surveillance must not be afforded the opportunity to operate at will and with impunity. Suspicious events must be catalogued and investigated. Emphasis must also be placed on attack recognition and driver training to provide every possibility of spotting a pending attack and avoiding it before it can be successfully launched. Action is always faster than reaction. And even a highly-skilled protection team can be defeated if the attacker gains the tactical element of surprise — especially if coupled with overwhelming firepower.
Ideally, those conducting surveillance must be made uncomfortable or even manipulated into revealing their position when it proves advantageous to countersurveillance teams. Dummy motorcade moves are a fine tool to add into the mix, as is the use of safe houses for alternate residences and offices. Any ploy to confuse, deceive or deter potential scouts that ultimately make them tip their hand are valuable tricks of the trade employed by protective intelligence practitioners — professionals tasked with the difficult mission of deterring the type of assassinations we have recently seen in Mexico.
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Mexico: On the Road to a Failed State?
May 13, 2008
Related Links
· Mexico’s Cartel Wars: Toward a Tipping Point?
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Related Special Topic Page
· Tracking Mexico’s Drug Cartels
By George Friedman
Edgar Millan Gomez was shot dead in his own home in Mexico City on May 8. Millan Gomez was the highest-ranking law enforcement officer in Mexico, responsible for overseeing most of Mexico’s counternarcotics efforts. He orchestrated the January arrest of one of the leaders of the Sinaloa cartel, Alfredo Beltran Leyva. (Several Sinaloa members have been arrested in Mexico City since the beginning of the year.) The week before, Roberto Velasco Bravo died when he was shot in the head at close range by two armed men near his home in Mexico City. He was the director of organized criminal investigations in a tactical analysis unit of the federal police. The Mexican government believes the Sinaloa drug cartel ordered the assassinations of Velasco Bravo and Millan Gomez. Combined with the assassination of other federal police officials in Mexico City, we now see a pattern of intensifying warfare in Mexico City.
The fighting also extended to the killing of the son of the Sinaloa cartel leader, Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman Loera, who was killed outside a shopping center in Culiacan, the capital of Sinaloa state. Also killed was the son of reputed top Sinaloa money launderer Blanca Margarita Cazares Salazar in an attack carried out by 40 gunmen. According to sources, Los Zetas, the enforcement arm of the rival Gulf cartel, carried out the attack. Reports also indicate a split between Sinaloa and a resurgent Juarez cartel, which also could have been behind the Millan Gomez killing.
Spiraling Violence
Violence along the U.S.-Mexican border has been intensifying for several years, and there have been attacks in Mexico City. But last week was noteworthy not so much for the body count, but for the type of people being killed. Very senior government police officials in Mexico City were killed along with senior Sinaloa cartel operatives in Sinaloa state. In other words, the killings are extending from low-level operatives to higher-ranking ones, and the attacks are reaching into enemy territory, so to speak. Mexican government officials are being killed in Mexico City, Sinaloan operatives in Sinaloa. The conflict is becoming more intense and placing senior officials at risk.
The killings pose a strategic problem for the Mexican government. The bulk of its effective troops are deployed along the U.S. border, attempting to suppress violence and smuggling among the grunts along the border, as well as the well-known smuggling routes elsewhere in the country. The attacks in Mexico raise the question of whether forces should be shifted from these assignments to Mexico City to protect officials and break up the infrastructure of the Sinaloa and other cartels there. The government also faces the secondary task of suppressing violence between cartels. The Sinaloa cartel struck in Mexico City not only to kill troublesome officials and intimidate others, but also to pose a problem for the Mexican government by increasing areas requiring forces, thereby requiring the government to consider splitting its forces — thus reducing the government presence along the border. It was a strategically smart move by Sinaloa, but no one has accused the cartels of being stupid.
Mexico now faces a classic problem. Multiple, well-armed organized groups have emerged. They are fighting among themselves while simultaneously fighting the government. The groups are fueled by vast amounts of money earned via drug smuggling to the United States. The amount of money involved — estimated at some $40 billion a year — is sufficient to increase tension between these criminal groups and give them the resources to conduct wars against each other. It also provides them with resources to bribe and intimidate government officials. The resources they deploy in some ways are superior to the resources the government employs.
Given the amount of money they have, the organized criminal groups can be very effective in bribing government officials at all levels, from squad leaders patrolling the border to high-ranking state and federal officials. Given the resources they have, they can reach out and kill government officials at all levels as well. Government officials are human; and faced with the carrot of bribes and the stick of death, even the most incorruptible is going to be cautious in executing operations against the cartels.
Toward a Failed State?
There comes a moment when the imbalance in resources reverses the relationship between government and cartels. Government officials, seeing the futility of resistance, effectively become tools of the cartels. Since there are multiple cartels, the area of competition ceases to be solely the border towns, shifting to the corridors of power in Mexico City. Government officials begin giving their primary loyalty not to the government but to one of the cartels. The government thus becomes both an arena for competition among the cartels and an instrument used by one cartel against another. That is the prescription for what is called a “failed state” — a state that no longer can function as a state. Lebanon in the 1980s is one such example.
There are examples in American history as well. Chicago in the 1920s was overwhelmed by a similar process. Smuggling alcohol created huge pools of money on the U.S. side of the border, controlled by criminals both by definition (bootlegging was illegal) and by inclination (people who engage in one sort of illegality are prepared to be criminals, more broadly understood). The smuggling laws gave these criminals huge amounts of power, which they used to intimidate and effectively absorb the city government. Facing a choice between being killed or being enriched, city officials chose the latter. City government shifted from controlling the criminals to being an arm of criminal power. In the meantime, various criminal gangs competed with each other for power.
Chicago had a failed city government. The resources available to the Chicago gangs were limited, however, and it was not possible for them to carry out the same function in Washington. Ultimately, Washington deployed resources in Chicago and destroyed one of the main gangs. But if Al Capone had been able to carry out the same operation in Washington as he did in Chicago, the United States could have become a failed state.
It is important to point out that we are not speaking here of corruption, which exists in all governments everywhere. Instead, we are talking about a systematic breakdown of the state, in which government is not simply influenced by criminals, but becomes an instrument of criminals — either simply an arena for battling among groups or under the control of a particular group. The state no longer can carry out its primary function of imposing peace, and it becomes helpless, or itself a direct perpetrator of crime. Corruption has been seen in Washington — some triggered by organized crime, but never state failure.
The Mexican state has not yet failed. If the activities of the last week have become a pattern, however, we must begin thinking about the potential for state failure. The killing of Millan Gomez transmitted a critical message: No one is safe, no matter how high his rank or how well protected, if he works against cartel interests. The killing of El Chapo’s son transmitted the message that no one in the leading cartel is safe from competing gangs, no matter how high his rank or how well protected.
The killing of senior state police officials causes other officials to recalculate their attitudes. The state is no longer seen as a competent protector, and being a state official is seen as a liability — potentially a fatal liability — unless protection is sought from a cartel, a protection that can be very lucrative indeed for the protector. The killing of senior cartel members intensifies conflict among cartels, making it even more difficult for the government to control the situation and intensifying the movement toward failure.
It is important to remember that Mexico has a tradition of failed governments, particularly in the 19th and early 20th century. In those periods, Mexico City became an arena for struggle among army officers and regional groups straddling the line between criminal and political. The Mexican army became an instrument in this struggle and its control a prize. The one thing missing was the vast amounts of money at stake. So there is a tradition of state failure in Mexico, and there are higher stakes today than before.
The Drug Trade’s High Stakes
To benchmark the amount at stake, assume that the total amount of drug trafficking is $40 billion, a frequently used figure, but hardly an exact one by any means. In 2007, Mexico exported about $210 billion worth of goods to the United States and imported about $136 billion from the United States. If the drug trade is $40 billion dollars, it represents about 25 percent of all exports to the United States. That in itself is huge, but what makes it more important is that while the $210 billion is divided among many businesses and individuals, the $40 billion is concentrated in the hands of a few, fairly tightly controlled cartels. Sinaloa and Gulf, currently the strongest, have vast resources at their disposal; a substantial part of the economy can be controlled through this money. This creates tremendous instability as other cartels vie for the top spot, with the state lacking the resources to control the situation and having its officials seduced and intimidated by the car tels.
We have seen failed states elsewhere. Colombia in the 1980s failed over the same issue — drug money. Lebanon failed in the 1970s and 1980s. The Democratic Republic of the Congo was a failed state.
Mexico’s potential failure is important for three reasons. First, Mexico is a huge country, with a population of more than 100 million. Second, it has a large economy — the 14th-largest in the world. And third, it shares an extended border with the world’s only global power, one that has assumed for most of the 20th century that its domination of North America and control of its borders is a foregone conclusion. If Mexico fails, there are serious geopolitical repercussions. This is not simply a criminal matter.
The amount of money accumulated in Mexico derives from smuggling operations in the United States. Drugs go one way, money another. But all the money doesn’t have to return to Mexico or to third-party countries. If Mexico fails, the leading cartels will compete in the United States, and that competition will extend to the source of the money as well. We have already seen cartel violence in the border areas of the United States, but this risk is not limited to that. The same process that we see under way in Mexico could extend to the United States; logic dictates that it would.
The current issue is control of the source of drugs and of the supply chain that delivers drugs to retail customers in the United States. The struggle for control of the source and the supply chain also will involve a struggle for control of markets. The process of intimidation of government and police officials, as well as bribing them, can take place in market towns such as Los Angeles or Chicago, as well as production centers or transshipment points.
Cartel Incentives for U.S. Expansion
That means there are economic incentives for the cartels to extend their operations into the United States. With those incentives comes intercartel competition, and with that competition comes pressure on U.S. local, state and, ultimately, federal government and police functions. Were that to happen, the global implications obviously would be stunning. Imagine an extreme case in which the Mexican scenario is acted out in the United States. The effect on the global system economically and politically would be astounding, since U.S. failure would see the world reshaping itself in startling ways.
Failure for the United States is much harder than for Mexico, however. The United States has a gross domestic product of about $14 trillion, while Mexico’s economy is about $900 billion. The impact of the cartels’ money is vastly greater in Mexico than in the United States, where it would be dwarfed by other pools of money with a powerful interest in maintaining U.S. stability. The idea of a failed American state is therefore far-fetched.
Less far-fetched is the extension of a Mexican failure into the borderlands of the United States. Street-level violence already has crossed the border. But a deeper, more-systemic corruption — particularly on the local level — could easily extend into the United States, along with paramilitary operations between cartels and between the Mexican government and cartels.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates recently visited Mexico, and there are potential plans for U.S. aid in support of Mexican government operations. But if the Mexican government became paralyzed and couldn’t carry out these operations, the U.S. government would face a stark and unpleasant choice. It could attempt to protect the United States from the violence defensively by sealing off Mexico or controlling the area north of the border more effectively. Or, as it did in the early 20th century, the United States could adopt a forward defense by sending U.S. troops south of the border to fight the battle in Mexico.
There have been suggestions that the border be sealed. But Mexico is the United States’ third-largest customer, and the United States is Mexico’s largest customer. This was the case well before NAFTA, and has nothing to do with treaties and everything to do with economics and geography. Cutting that trade would have catastrophic effects on both sides of the border, and would guarantee the failure of the Mexican state. It isn’t going to happen.
The Impossibility of Sealing the Border
So long as vast quantities of goods flow across the border, the border cannot be sealed. Immigration might be limited by a wall, but the goods that cross the border do so at roads and bridges, and the sheer amount of goods crossing the border makes careful inspection impossible. The drugs will come across the border embedded in this trade as well as by other routes. So will gunmen from the cartel and anything else needed to take control of Los Angeles’ drug market.
A purely passive defense won’t work unless the economic cost of blockade is absorbed. The choices are a defensive posture to deal with the battle on American soil if it spills over, or an offensive posture to suppress the battle on the other side of the border. Bearing in mind that Mexico is not a small country and that counterinsurgency is not the United States’ strong suit, the latter is a dangerous game. But the first option isn’t likely to work either.
One way to deal with the problem would be ending the artificial price of drugs by legalizing them. This would rapidly lower the price of drugs and vastly reduce the money to be made in smuggling them. Nothing hurt the American cartels more than the repeal of Prohibition, and nothing helped them more than Prohibition itself. Nevertheless, from an objective point of view, drug legalization isn’t going to happen. There is no visible political coalition of substantial size advocating this solution. Therefore, U.S. drug policy will continue to raise the price of drugs artificially, effective interdiction will be impossible, and the Mexican cartels will prosper and make war on each other and on the Mexican state.
We are not yet at the worst-case scenario, and we may never get there. Mexican President Felipe Calderon, perhaps with assistance from the United States, may devise a strategy to immunize his government from intimidation and corruption and take the war home to the cartels. This is a serious possibility that should not be ruled out. Nevertheless, the events of last week raise the serious possibility of a failed state in Mexico. That should not be taken lightly, as it could change far more than Mexico.
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By Fred Burton and Scott Stewart
Mexico’s long and violent drug cartel war has recently intensified. The past week witnessed the killings of no fewer than six senior police officials. One of those killed was Edgar Millan Gomez, acting head of the Mexican federal police and the highest-ranking federal cop in Mexico. Millan Gomez was shot to death May 8 just after entering his home in Mexico City.
Within the past few days, six suspects have been arrested in connection with his murder. One of the ringleaders is said to be a former federal highway police officer. The suspects appear to have ties to the Sinaloa cartel. In fact, Millan Gomez was responsible for a police operation in January that led to the arrest of Alfredo Beltran Leyva, the cartel’s second-in-command. Mexican police believe Beltran Leyva’s brother Arturo (who is also a significant player in the Sinaloa cartel structure) commissioned the hit.
Related Links
· Mexico’s Cartel Wars: Toward a Tipping Point?
FREE PODCAST
During the same time period, violence from the cartel war has visited the family of Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman Loera, the Sinaloa cartel leader who has the distinction of being Mexico’s most-wanted drug kingpin. On May 8, Guzman Loera’s son Edgar Guzman Beltran and two companions were killed by a large-scale ambush as they left a shopping mall in Culiacan, Sinaloa.
In addition to discussing the geopolitical implications of this escalation in the violence, we thought it would be instructive to look at the recent wave of violence through the lens of protective intelligence. Such an effort can allow us not only to see what lessons can be learned from the attacks, but also provide insight on how similar attacks can be avoided in the future, which is the real aim of protective intelligence.
Tactical Details of the Recent Attacks
On the evening of May 1, Roberto Velasco Bravo, director of investigations against organized crime for Mexico’s state public security police (SSP), was gunned down as he returned to his Mexico City home. Two assailants reportedly approached Velasco Bravo as he parked his sport utility vehicle and shot him in the head at close range before fleeing the scene. Although the incident initially was believed to have been a robbery attempt gone bad, the discovery of a .380 caliber handgun fitted with a suppressor near the crime scene suggests the shooting was actually a professionally targeted assassination. Local press also reported that Velasco Bravo died on his day off and that his bodyguard had been ordered to stand down because he was planning to travel outside the city.
On May 2, less than 24 hours after the Velasco Bravo shooting, inspector Jose Aristeo Gomez Martinez, the administrative director of the Federal Preventative Police (PFP), was gunned down in front of his home in the wealthy Coyoacan neighborhood of Mexico City. Gomez Martinez and a woman were talking in front of the house around midnight when two armed men surprised them and reportedly attempted to force Gomez Martinez into the back seat of his own car. Gomez Martinez struggled with the men and was shot in the arm and chest. Mexican authorities say the motive for the Gomez Martinez killing remains murky. However, the circumstances surrounding the case –- he was shot with a suppressed .380 pistol outside of his residence — are certainly very similar to the Velasco Bravo and Millan Gomez killings.
In the Millan Gomez attack, alleged members of a murder-for-hire gang shot and killed the federal police chief as he returned to his home in the early hours of the morning. Millan Gomez was reportedly shot eight times at close range by a gunman armed with two handguns — one of which was a .380 with a suppressor. The gunman was reportedly waiting inside Millan Gomez’s apartment building. The victim apparently struggled with his assailant and attempted to grab the suppressed weapon from the gunman. During the struggle, the gunman reportedly shot Millan Gomez in the hand once with the suppressed weapon and then several times in the torso with his back-up weapon, which was not suppressed. Millan Gomez’s two-man protection team, who had just dropped him off at the door, heard the nonsuppressed shots and returned to the apartment building to investigate. One member of the protection team was wounded in the chest by the fleeing gunman, but the team was able to w ound and apprehend him alive. The interrogation of the gunman and the investigation of the equipment and other items found in his possession led to the recent arrest of the five other suspects allegedly tied to the assassination gang.
Also on May 8, Edgar Guzman Beltran, the son of Sinaloa cartel leader Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman Loera, was killed at 8:50 p.m. local time in Culiacan, Sinaloa state. Guzman Beltran was leaving a local shopping mall with two friends — one of whom was Arturo Meza Cazares, the son of Blanca Margarita Cazares Salazar, reputed to be the cartel’s top money launderer — when the three were caught in a heavy hail of gunfire. Reports from the scene indicate that the team that attacked Guzman Beltran may have involved as many as 40 gunmen from a rival cartel who opened up on the three men with AK-47 rifles and a rocket-propelled grenade launcher. Other reports put the number of ambushers at around 20. In any event, even 20 men armed with AKs and a rocket-propelled grenade launcher is a significant force, and something one would expect to see in a war zone such as Iraq or Afghanista n rather than in Mexico.
On May 9, Esteban Robles Espinosa, commander of Mexico City’s investigative police force, was attacked by a group of armed men shortly after he left his house at about 8:30 a.m. Four gunmen traveling in a truck and another in a compact car opened fire on him at an intersection near his home. The attack appears to be a classic vehicular ambush involving a blocking vehicle and an assault team. Robles Espinosa apparently attempted to avoid the attacks and flee the site, but his escape attempt ended when his vehicle struck a tree. Robles Espinosa was shot seven times — four times in the throat, once in the neck, and twice in the head. He died shortly after arriving at a hospital. Authorities reportedly found 20 casings from 9mm and .40 caliber cartridges at the scene of the attack. The placement of the shots in this case appears to be uncharacteristically controlled for Mexico, where victims are normally wounded in various parts of their bodies. The concentration of wounds in the head and neck would appear to indicate that at least one of the shooters was an accomplished marksman. The shot placement might also indicate that Robles Espinosa was wearing a protective vest, and the assailants, being aware of the vest, directed their fire toward his head.
Common Themes
The Millan Gomez, Velasco Bravo and Gomez Martinez shootings were all similar in that they involved suppressed .380 handguns and were intended to be clean and discreetly conducted events. They stand in stark contrast to many of the cartel killings in Mexico, which tend to be more like the killings of Beltran Guzman and involve massive firepower and very little precision or discretion. Even though the Millan Gomez killing got messy, and the shooter was caught, it was intended to be a very quiet, surgical hit — until Murphy’s law kicked in for the assassin.
It is notable that the killing of the four police officials all occurred in proximity to their homes, and that all four attacks were conducted during an arrival or departure at the home. It has long been common for terrorists and criminal kidnappers or assassins to focus on the home or office of their prospective target, because these are known locations that the potential victim frequently visits with some regularity. Also, homes are often preferable to offices, because they usually have less security, and criminals or terrorists can operate around them more easily and with less chance of being caught. Arrivals and departures are prime times for attacks, because the target is generally easier to locate and quickly acquire when on foot or in a car than when in a building.
Furthermore, the objective of preoperational surveillance is to detect the target’s patterns and vulnerabilities so that an attack can be planned. Historically, one of the most likely times for an attack to occur is when a potential victim is leaving from or returning to a known location. The most predictable move traditionally is the home-to-office move; however, the team that conducted the surveillance on Velasco Bravo, Gomez Martinez and Millan Gomez apparently found them to be predictable in their evening moves and planned the attacks accordingly. Robles Espinosa was attacked during the more-stereotypical morning move. Attacking in the evening could also give the assailants the cover of darkness. The low-key assassination cell behind the Velasco Bravo, Gomez Martinez and Millan Gomez attacks seemed to prefer that kind of cover. It is also possible that in the Guzman Beltran case, the shoppi ng mall was a known place for him to frequent and that he had established a pattern of visiting there in the evening.
All five of the attacks also occurred in close proximity to vehicles. Millan Gomez, Gomez Martinez and Guzman Beltran were attacked while outside their vehicles; Robles Espinosa and Vellasco Bravo were attacked while in theirs, though neither of the men had an armored vehicle.
Protective Intelligence Lessons
A former federal police officer was arrested in connection with the Millan Gomez case, and he was found to have a list of license plates and home addresses; but such information alone is not enough to plan an assassination. Extensive preoperational surveillance is also required. From the careful planning of the Velasco Bravo, Gomez Martinez and Millan Gomez hits, it is apparent that the targets were under surveillance for a prolonged period of time. The fact that Robles Espinosa was hit during his morning move from home to work also tends to indicate that he had an established pattern that had been picked up by surveillance. Even in the Guzman Beltran killing, one does not amass a team of 20 or 40 assassins at the drop of a hat. Clearly, the operation was planned and the target had been watched.
The fact that surveillance was conducted in each of these cases means that the people conducting that surveillance were forced to expose themselves to detection. Furthermore, preoperational surveillance is normally not that sophisticated, since people rarely look for it. This means that had countersurveillance efforts been used these efforts likely would have been detected, especially since countersurveillance efforts often focus on known, predictable locations such as the home and office.
Another important lesson is that bodyguards and armored cars are no guarantee of protection in and of themselves. Assailants can look for and exploit vulnerabilities — as they did in the Velasco Bravo and Millan Gomez cases — if they are allowed to conduct surveillance at will and are given the opportunity to thoroughly assess the protective security program. Even if there are security measures in place, malefactors may choose to attack in spite of security and, in such a case, will do so with adequate resources to overcome those security measures. If there are protective agents, the attackers will plan to neutralize them first. If there is an armored vehicle, they will find ways to defeat the armor — something easily accomplished with the rocket-propelled grenades, LAW rockets and .50 caliber sniper rifles found in the arsenals of Mexican cartels.
Unfortunately, many people believe that the presence of armed bodyguards — or armed guards combined with armored vehicles — provides absolute security. This macho misconception is not confined to Latin America, but is pervasive there. Frankly, when we consider the size of the assault team employed in the Guzman Beltran hit (even if it consisted of only 20 men) and their armaments, there are very few protective details in the world sufficiently trained and equipped to deal with that level of threat. Executive protection teams and armored cars provide very little protection against dozens of attackers armed with AK rifles and rocket-propelled grenades, especially if the attackers are given free rein to conduct surveillance and plan their attack.
Indeed, many people — including police and executive protection personnel — either lack or fail to employ good observation skills. These skills are every bit as important as marksmanship — if not more — but are rarely taught or practiced. Additionally, even if a protection agent observes something unusual, in many cases there is no system in place to record these observations and no efficient way to communicate them or to compare them to the observations of others. There is often no process to investigate such observations in attempt to determine if they are indicators of something untoward.
The real counter to such a threat is heightened security awareness and a robust countersurveillance program, coupled with careful route and schedule analysis. Routes and traveling times must be varied, surveillance must be looked for and those conducting surveillance must not be afforded the opportunity to operate at will and with impunity. Suspicious events must be catalogued and investigated. Emphasis must also be placed on attack recognition and driver training to provide every possibility of spotting a pending attack and avoiding it before it can be successfully launched. Action is always faster than reaction. And even a highly-skilled protection team can be defeated if the attacker gains the tactical element of surprise — especially if coupled with overwhelming firepower.
Ideally, those conducting surveillance must be made uncomfortable or even manipulated into revealing their position when it proves advantageous to countersurveillance teams. Dummy motorcade moves are a fine tool to add into the mix, as is the use of safe houses for alternate residences and offices. Any ploy to confuse, deceive or deter potential scouts that ultimately make them tip their hand are valuable tricks of the trade employed by protective intelligence practitioners — professionals tasked with the difficult mission of deterring the type of assassinations we have recently seen in Mexico.
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Mexico: On the Road to a Failed State?
May 13, 2008
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· Mexico’s Cartel Wars: Toward a Tipping Point?
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· Tracking Mexico’s Drug Cartels
By George Friedman
Edgar Millan Gomez was shot dead in his own home in Mexico City on May 8. Millan Gomez was the highest-ranking law enforcement officer in Mexico, responsible for overseeing most of Mexico’s counternarcotics efforts. He orchestrated the January arrest of one of the leaders of the Sinaloa cartel, Alfredo Beltran Leyva. (Several Sinaloa members have been arrested in Mexico City since the beginning of the year.) The week before, Roberto Velasco Bravo died when he was shot in the head at close range by two armed men near his home in Mexico City. He was the director of organized criminal investigations in a tactical analysis unit of the federal police. The Mexican government believes the Sinaloa drug cartel ordered the assassinations of Velasco Bravo and Millan Gomez. Combined with the assassination of other federal police officials in Mexico City, we now see a pattern of intensifying warfare in Mexico City.
The fighting also extended to the killing of the son of the Sinaloa cartel leader, Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman Loera, who was killed outside a shopping center in Culiacan, the capital of Sinaloa state. Also killed was the son of reputed top Sinaloa money launderer Blanca Margarita Cazares Salazar in an attack carried out by 40 gunmen. According to sources, Los Zetas, the enforcement arm of the rival Gulf cartel, carried out the attack. Reports also indicate a split between Sinaloa and a resurgent Juarez cartel, which also could have been behind the Millan Gomez killing.
Spiraling Violence
Violence along the U.S.-Mexican border has been intensifying for several years, and there have been attacks in Mexico City. But last week was noteworthy not so much for the body count, but for the type of people being killed. Very senior government police officials in Mexico City were killed along with senior Sinaloa cartel operatives in Sinaloa state. In other words, the killings are extending from low-level operatives to higher-ranking ones, and the attacks are reaching into enemy territory, so to speak. Mexican government officials are being killed in Mexico City, Sinaloan operatives in Sinaloa. The conflict is becoming more intense and placing senior officials at risk.
The killings pose a strategic problem for the Mexican government. The bulk of its effective troops are deployed along the U.S. border, attempting to suppress violence and smuggling among the grunts along the border, as well as the well-known smuggling routes elsewhere in the country. The attacks in Mexico raise the question of whether forces should be shifted from these assignments to Mexico City to protect officials and break up the infrastructure of the Sinaloa and other cartels there. The government also faces the secondary task of suppressing violence between cartels. The Sinaloa cartel struck in Mexico City not only to kill troublesome officials and intimidate others, but also to pose a problem for the Mexican government by increasing areas requiring forces, thereby requiring the government to consider splitting its forces — thus reducing the government presence along the border. It was a strategically smart move by Sinaloa, but no one has accused the cartels of being stupid.
Mexico now faces a classic problem. Multiple, well-armed organized groups have emerged. They are fighting among themselves while simultaneously fighting the government. The groups are fueled by vast amounts of money earned via drug smuggling to the United States. The amount of money involved — estimated at some $40 billion a year — is sufficient to increase tension between these criminal groups and give them the resources to conduct wars against each other. It also provides them with resources to bribe and intimidate government officials. The resources they deploy in some ways are superior to the resources the government employs.
Given the amount of money they have, the organized criminal groups can be very effective in bribing government officials at all levels, from squad leaders patrolling the border to high-ranking state and federal officials. Given the resources they have, they can reach out and kill government officials at all levels as well. Government officials are human; and faced with the carrot of bribes and the stick of death, even the most incorruptible is going to be cautious in executing operations against the cartels.
Toward a Failed State?
There comes a moment when the imbalance in resources reverses the relationship between government and cartels. Government officials, seeing the futility of resistance, effectively become tools of the cartels. Since there are multiple cartels, the area of competition ceases to be solely the border towns, shifting to the corridors of power in Mexico City. Government officials begin giving their primary loyalty not to the government but to one of the cartels. The government thus becomes both an arena for competition among the cartels and an instrument used by one cartel against another. That is the prescription for what is called a “failed state” — a state that no longer can function as a state. Lebanon in the 1980s is one such example.
There are examples in American history as well. Chicago in the 1920s was overwhelmed by a similar process. Smuggling alcohol created huge pools of money on the U.S. side of the border, controlled by criminals both by definition (bootlegging was illegal) and by inclination (people who engage in one sort of illegality are prepared to be criminals, more broadly understood). The smuggling laws gave these criminals huge amounts of power, which they used to intimidate and effectively absorb the city government. Facing a choice between being killed or being enriched, city officials chose the latter. City government shifted from controlling the criminals to being an arm of criminal power. In the meantime, various criminal gangs competed with each other for power.
Chicago had a failed city government. The resources available to the Chicago gangs were limited, however, and it was not possible for them to carry out the same function in Washington. Ultimately, Washington deployed resources in Chicago and destroyed one of the main gangs. But if Al Capone had been able to carry out the same operation in Washington as he did in Chicago, the United States could have become a failed state.
It is important to point out that we are not speaking here of corruption, which exists in all governments everywhere. Instead, we are talking about a systematic breakdown of the state, in which government is not simply influenced by criminals, but becomes an instrument of criminals — either simply an arena for battling among groups or under the control of a particular group. The state no longer can carry out its primary function of imposing peace, and it becomes helpless, or itself a direct perpetrator of crime. Corruption has been seen in Washington — some triggered by organized crime, but never state failure.
The Mexican state has not yet failed. If the activities of the last week have become a pattern, however, we must begin thinking about the potential for state failure. The killing of Millan Gomez transmitted a critical message: No one is safe, no matter how high his rank or how well protected, if he works against cartel interests. The killing of El Chapo’s son transmitted the message that no one in the leading cartel is safe from competing gangs, no matter how high his rank or how well protected.
The killing of senior state police officials causes other officials to recalculate their attitudes. The state is no longer seen as a competent protector, and being a state official is seen as a liability — potentially a fatal liability — unless protection is sought from a cartel, a protection that can be very lucrative indeed for the protector. The killing of senior cartel members intensifies conflict among cartels, making it even more difficult for the government to control the situation and intensifying the movement toward failure.
It is important to remember that Mexico has a tradition of failed governments, particularly in the 19th and early 20th century. In those periods, Mexico City became an arena for struggle among army officers and regional groups straddling the line between criminal and political. The Mexican army became an instrument in this struggle and its control a prize. The one thing missing was the vast amounts of money at stake. So there is a tradition of state failure in Mexico, and there are higher stakes today than before.
The Drug Trade’s High Stakes
To benchmark the amount at stake, assume that the total amount of drug trafficking is $40 billion, a frequently used figure, but hardly an exact one by any means. In 2007, Mexico exported about $210 billion worth of goods to the United States and imported about $136 billion from the United States. If the drug trade is $40 billion dollars, it represents about 25 percent of all exports to the United States. That in itself is huge, but what makes it more important is that while the $210 billion is divided among many businesses and individuals, the $40 billion is concentrated in the hands of a few, fairly tightly controlled cartels. Sinaloa and Gulf, currently the strongest, have vast resources at their disposal; a substantial part of the economy can be controlled through this money. This creates tremendous instability as other cartels vie for the top spot, with the state lacking the resources to control the situation and having its officials seduced and intimidated by the car tels.
We have seen failed states elsewhere. Colombia in the 1980s failed over the same issue — drug money. Lebanon failed in the 1970s and 1980s. The Democratic Republic of the Congo was a failed state.
Mexico’s potential failure is important for three reasons. First, Mexico is a huge country, with a population of more than 100 million. Second, it has a large economy — the 14th-largest in the world. And third, it shares an extended border with the world’s only global power, one that has assumed for most of the 20th century that its domination of North America and control of its borders is a foregone conclusion. If Mexico fails, there are serious geopolitical repercussions. This is not simply a criminal matter.
The amount of money accumulated in Mexico derives from smuggling operations in the United States. Drugs go one way, money another. But all the money doesn’t have to return to Mexico or to third-party countries. If Mexico fails, the leading cartels will compete in the United States, and that competition will extend to the source of the money as well. We have already seen cartel violence in the border areas of the United States, but this risk is not limited to that. The same process that we see under way in Mexico could extend to the United States; logic dictates that it would.
The current issue is control of the source of drugs and of the supply chain that delivers drugs to retail customers in the United States. The struggle for control of the source and the supply chain also will involve a struggle for control of markets. The process of intimidation of government and police officials, as well as bribing them, can take place in market towns such as Los Angeles or Chicago, as well as production centers or transshipment points.
Cartel Incentives for U.S. Expansion
That means there are economic incentives for the cartels to extend their operations into the United States. With those incentives comes intercartel competition, and with that competition comes pressure on U.S. local, state and, ultimately, federal government and police functions. Were that to happen, the global implications obviously would be stunning. Imagine an extreme case in which the Mexican scenario is acted out in the United States. The effect on the global system economically and politically would be astounding, since U.S. failure would see the world reshaping itself in startling ways.
Failure for the United States is much harder than for Mexico, however. The United States has a gross domestic product of about $14 trillion, while Mexico’s economy is about $900 billion. The impact of the cartels’ money is vastly greater in Mexico than in the United States, where it would be dwarfed by other pools of money with a powerful interest in maintaining U.S. stability. The idea of a failed American state is therefore far-fetched.
Less far-fetched is the extension of a Mexican failure into the borderlands of the United States. Street-level violence already has crossed the border. But a deeper, more-systemic corruption — particularly on the local level — could easily extend into the United States, along with paramilitary operations between cartels and between the Mexican government and cartels.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates recently visited Mexico, and there are potential plans for U.S. aid in support of Mexican government operations. But if the Mexican government became paralyzed and couldn’t carry out these operations, the U.S. government would face a stark and unpleasant choice. It could attempt to protect the United States from the violence defensively by sealing off Mexico or controlling the area north of the border more effectively. Or, as it did in the early 20th century, the United States could adopt a forward defense by sending U.S. troops south of the border to fight the battle in Mexico.
There have been suggestions that the border be sealed. But Mexico is the United States’ third-largest customer, and the United States is Mexico’s largest customer. This was the case well before NAFTA, and has nothing to do with treaties and everything to do with economics and geography. Cutting that trade would have catastrophic effects on both sides of the border, and would guarantee the failure of the Mexican state. It isn’t going to happen.
The Impossibility of Sealing the Border
So long as vast quantities of goods flow across the border, the border cannot be sealed. Immigration might be limited by a wall, but the goods that cross the border do so at roads and bridges, and the sheer amount of goods crossing the border makes careful inspection impossible. The drugs will come across the border embedded in this trade as well as by other routes. So will gunmen from the cartel and anything else needed to take control of Los Angeles’ drug market.
A purely passive defense won’t work unless the economic cost of blockade is absorbed. The choices are a defensive posture to deal with the battle on American soil if it spills over, or an offensive posture to suppress the battle on the other side of the border. Bearing in mind that Mexico is not a small country and that counterinsurgency is not the United States’ strong suit, the latter is a dangerous game. But the first option isn’t likely to work either.
One way to deal with the problem would be ending the artificial price of drugs by legalizing them. This would rapidly lower the price of drugs and vastly reduce the money to be made in smuggling them. Nothing hurt the American cartels more than the repeal of Prohibition, and nothing helped them more than Prohibition itself. Nevertheless, from an objective point of view, drug legalization isn’t going to happen. There is no visible political coalition of substantial size advocating this solution. Therefore, U.S. drug policy will continue to raise the price of drugs artificially, effective interdiction will be impossible, and the Mexican cartels will prosper and make war on each other and on the Mexican state.
We are not yet at the worst-case scenario, and we may never get there. Mexican President Felipe Calderon, perhaps with assistance from the United States, may devise a strategy to immunize his government from intimidation and corruption and take the war home to the cartels. This is a serious possibility that should not be ruled out. Nevertheless, the events of last week raise the serious possibility of a failed state in Mexico. That should not be taken lightly, as it could change far more than Mexico.
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jueves, 8 de mayo de 2008
En los próximos 50 años la tecnología cambiará nuestras vidas
BT dibuja los escenarios tecnológicos más plausibles del próximo futuro: será necesaria una nueva mentalidad
En 2046 se habrá consolidado la energía nuclear de fusión, en 2041 existirá una pequeña ciudad en la Luna, en 2036 tendremos el primer ascensor espacial, en 2031 los robots serán más inteligentes que nosotros, en 2026 habrá combates de boxeo entre androides, en 2021 los yogurts nos contarán chistes, en 2016 los coches serán pilotados automáticamente, en 2017 podremos ir de vacaciones a un hotel en órbita, en 2011 los robots cuidarán nuestros jardines, y el año que viene el ordenador ya procesará más rápidamente que una persona. Son algunos de los escenarios elaborados por el equipo de prospectiva tecnológica de British Telecom, que prevé asimismo para 2051 comunicaciones telepáticas generalizadas y la transferencia de la información contenida en un cerebro humano a una máquina. Por Eduardo Martínez.
Las innovaciones tecnológicas que se avecinan en el horizonte de los próximos cincuenta años modificarán de tal manera nuestras vidas actuales que sólo un cambio de mentalidad global podrá asimilarlas. Lo afirma el 2005 BT Technology Timeline, el ejercicio de prospectiva tecnológica elaborado por expertos de British Telecom, que anticipa las posibles innovaciones tecnológicas en campos tan dispares como la salud, la economía, la demografía, la energía, la robótica, el espacio, las telecomunicaciones y los transportes. Los autores se apresuran a aclarar en toda lógica que los escenarios que dibujan son meras posibilidades, así como las previsibles implicaciones sociales de tales innovaciones. Para dibujar estos escenarios han consultado a expertos de diversos campos de todo el mundo. Con ellos han perfilado un consenso respecto a qué tecnologías tienen más posibilidades de emerger en los próximos años, en qué momento harán irrupción en la sociedad y qué impacto social puede esperarse de ellas. El resultado son unas mil tecnologías emergentes clasificadas por especialidades y por el período de tiempo en el que supuestamente estarán disponibles para la sociedad, tal como explica BT en un comunicado. Existe una versión panorámica del informe, así como otra interactiva, que resultan muy elocuentes. Los autores reconocen que muchas de las tecnologías dibujadas parecen de ciencia ficción, pero recuerdan al respecto la tercera ley del escritor de ciencia ficción Arthur C. Clarke, formulada en 1962: Cualquier tecnología suficientemente avanzada es indistinguible de la magia. Nanotecnología y biotecnología, cruciales Señalan al respecto que dentro de 60 años veremos cómo la nanotecnología y la biotecnología provocarán impactos en nuestras vidas que hoy consideraremos como mágicos, pero que serán normales para los hijos de nuestros hijos, debido a que nuestra escala temporal actual sólo puede aprehender una pequeña parte de lo que está en camino. Si comenzamos por descubrir las tecnologías más remotas, lo que nos auguran estos expertos es que en 2051 el Reino Unido tendrá un equipo de fútbol formado íntegramente por robots, que para ese entonces habrá desaparecido completamente el agujero de la capa de ozono, que las comunicaciones telepáticas se habrán hecho corrientes entre las personas y que la información contenida en un cerebro humano podrá desde esa fecha ser transferida a un soporte artificial (los cerebros artificiales existirán desde 2040). El viaje a través del tiempo, los primeros contactos con inteligencias extraterrestres, la circulación de personas a través del ciberespacio, los viajes a una velocidad superior a la de la luz o el colapso de la economía internacional, son escenarios relegados más allá de 2050, sin fecha posible. Son los más especulativos.
Futuro y presente Lo más probable, sin embargo, es que en 2046 se haya consolidado la energía nuclear de fusión (un aliento para el proyecto ITER), que en 2041 exista una pequeña ciudad en la Luna, que en 2036 tengamos el primer ascensor espacial, que en 2031 los robots sean ya más inteligentes que nosotros, que en 2026 haya combates de boxeo entre androides, que en 2021 los yogurts (que incorporarán circuitos electrónicos de ADN en sus bacterias) nos cuenten chistes (ver al respecto lo que dice The Guardian), que en 2016 los coches sean pilotados automáticamente, que en 2017 podamos ir de vacaciones a un hotel en órbita, que en 2011 los robots cuiden nuestros jardines, o que el año que viene el ordenador procese más rápidamente que una persona. Todo esto no es sino una caricatura de los escenarios tecnológicos previsibles descritos en el informe BT, que menciona también la posibilidad de que en 2012 existan azulejos de vídeo en el cuarto de baño para entretener a los niños, o paredes pintadas en el hogar que cambian de aspecto para estimular la energía vital, la felicidad o la calma. No es la primera vez que BT realiza este ejercicio: uno anterior realizado en los años noventa alcanzó un grado de exactitud de entre el 80% y el 90%. En cualquier caso, no debemos olvidar que el objetivo de estos ejercicios no es hacer una quiniela para acertar o no respecto a lo que puede ocurrir. La finalidad principal de la prospectiva es diseñar escenarios de futuro posibles con la finalidad de que estas perspectivas razonables de evolución nos permitan adoptar las mejores decisiones en el presente. Hay que imaginar qué puede ocurrir en los próximos años para adaptar nuestra mentalidad, nuestra profesión o nuestra actividad empresarial a esas posibles evoluciones. Es la mejor manera de vivir el presente. Escenarios más destacados Esquemáticamente, este es el resumen de las evoluciones tecnológicas de los próximos años que nos han parecido más llamativas:
2006-2010: juguetes emotivos, un grupo pop de inteligencia artificial se sitúa entre los 10 primeros del mundo, Internet llega al teatro, un superordenador más rápido que el cerebro humano, teléfonos móviles que transmiten emociones, pantallas flexibles... 2008-2012: mediacamentos suministrados a través de fruta modificada genéticamente, vídeotatuajes, tejidos sensibles que informan de la salud de una persona, clases mediante telepresencia, publicidad holográfica, aparato que traduce una conversaciòn en tiempo real... 2011-2015: coche pilotado automáticamente, regeneración dental gracias a la terapia genética, desaparición del papel moneda, el 60% de la población mundial vive en ciudades, robots-insectos ayudan a la polinización, robots jardineros, control de velocidad automático en las calles, ordenadores que duermen... 2013-2017: maquillaje electrónico que cambia de color, robots que guían a los ciegos por las calles, el 50% de la población mundial accede a Internet, juguetes nanotecnológicos, vídeos holográficos, hoteles en órbita, el genoma individual forma parte del historial médico, reconocimiento internacional de la cybernacionalidad… 2016-2020: se protegen jurídicamente las formas de vida electrónicas, los espectadores se convierten en los actores de las películas que ven, los objetos electrónicos permiten controlar las emociones, los androides representan al 10% de la población mundial, la policía se privatiza, las flores son kaleidoscópicas… 2021-2025: traducción inmediata automática, televisión en 3D, primera olimpiada biónica, almacenamiento bioquímico de la energía solar, primera misión a Marte, yogurt chistoso, tecnología antiruidos en los jardines… 2026-2030: impresoras 3D en los hogares, primer e-bebé emsamblado genéticamente, plena conexión con el cerebro, circuitos hechos con bacterias, combates deportivos de androides, factorías espaciales para el comercio interestelar… 2031-2035: posibilidad de ralentizar el metabolismo humano para permitir los viajes espaciales, ordenadores más inteligentes que las personas, animales domésticos diseñados a medida, juegos que usan la genética real, creación de “The Matrix”... 2036-2040: inauguración del primer ascensor espacial, estaciones de energía solar, escaparates virtuales, primer kil mecano-fractal… 2041-2045: primera ciudad lunar con servicio regular de transbordador, la poblaciòn mundial alcanza los 10.000 millones, la energía de las olas cubre el 50% de la demanda en el Reino Unido… 2046-2050: una pequeña colonia de cientificos se establece en Marte en una ciudad autosuficiente, llega el cerebro artificial, se impone la energía nuclear de fusión, se extraen minerales de los asteroides, 2051 + : los pensamientos, sentimientos y recuerdos se transfieren a un ordenador, desaparece el agujero de la capa de ozono, la expectativa de vida llega a los 100 años, la comunicación telepática se generaliza, se consigue el viaje a través del tiempo, colapso financiero internacional, desplazamientos de personas en el ciberespacio…
Otros escenarios La prospectiva ofrecida por BT no es la única. Social Technologies ha realizado también un amplio diseño de escenarios que pinta cómo será el mundo en 2025 a partir de quince categorías. Es una visión más social que tecnológica no exenta de atractivo y rigor. Está realizada por la consultora Coates & Jarratt, Inc. De Jpseph Coates ya publicamos en esta revista (2002) Un programa de Ciencia y Tecnología para el Siglo XXI. En un horizonte aún más amplio podemos consultar los Escenarios 2100 realizados por Thierry Gaudin. Se trata de una obra realizada el siglo pasado pero de gran envergadura: 2100: récit du prochain siècle. Publicada en 1993, esta obra conserva hoy toda su vigencia. Thierry Gaudin, que pertenece al Consejo Editorial de Tendencias21, acaba de publicar ahora un nuevo libro: La Prospective, en el que señala que el tránsito de una civilización industrial a otra cognitiva transforma las profesiones y las actividades sociales. En su relato del próximo siglo, Thierry Gaudin describe la probable evolución de la sociedad humana hasta el año 2100. Dos grandes etapas caracterizarán este proceso: a una etapa de degradación social que ahora estaríamos atravesando, le seguiría un período de reacción social positiva basado en programas de educación masivos, rediseño de las ciudades y la reforestación. El siglo XXI termina según estos escenarios con el predominio de los valores femeninos, religiosos y de sensibilidad. La principal riqueza de esta obra radica en su amplitud temática, su carácter interdisciplinar y el hecho de que en su elaboración han participado expertos de todas las culturas.
En 2046 se habrá consolidado la energía nuclear de fusión, en 2041 existirá una pequeña ciudad en la Luna, en 2036 tendremos el primer ascensor espacial, en 2031 los robots serán más inteligentes que nosotros, en 2026 habrá combates de boxeo entre androides, en 2021 los yogurts nos contarán chistes, en 2016 los coches serán pilotados automáticamente, en 2017 podremos ir de vacaciones a un hotel en órbita, en 2011 los robots cuidarán nuestros jardines, y el año que viene el ordenador ya procesará más rápidamente que una persona. Son algunos de los escenarios elaborados por el equipo de prospectiva tecnológica de British Telecom, que prevé asimismo para 2051 comunicaciones telepáticas generalizadas y la transferencia de la información contenida en un cerebro humano a una máquina. Por Eduardo Martínez.
Las innovaciones tecnológicas que se avecinan en el horizonte de los próximos cincuenta años modificarán de tal manera nuestras vidas actuales que sólo un cambio de mentalidad global podrá asimilarlas. Lo afirma el 2005 BT Technology Timeline, el ejercicio de prospectiva tecnológica elaborado por expertos de British Telecom, que anticipa las posibles innovaciones tecnológicas en campos tan dispares como la salud, la economía, la demografía, la energía, la robótica, el espacio, las telecomunicaciones y los transportes. Los autores se apresuran a aclarar en toda lógica que los escenarios que dibujan son meras posibilidades, así como las previsibles implicaciones sociales de tales innovaciones. Para dibujar estos escenarios han consultado a expertos de diversos campos de todo el mundo. Con ellos han perfilado un consenso respecto a qué tecnologías tienen más posibilidades de emerger en los próximos años, en qué momento harán irrupción en la sociedad y qué impacto social puede esperarse de ellas. El resultado son unas mil tecnologías emergentes clasificadas por especialidades y por el período de tiempo en el que supuestamente estarán disponibles para la sociedad, tal como explica BT en un comunicado. Existe una versión panorámica del informe, así como otra interactiva, que resultan muy elocuentes. Los autores reconocen que muchas de las tecnologías dibujadas parecen de ciencia ficción, pero recuerdan al respecto la tercera ley del escritor de ciencia ficción Arthur C. Clarke, formulada en 1962: Cualquier tecnología suficientemente avanzada es indistinguible de la magia. Nanotecnología y biotecnología, cruciales Señalan al respecto que dentro de 60 años veremos cómo la nanotecnología y la biotecnología provocarán impactos en nuestras vidas que hoy consideraremos como mágicos, pero que serán normales para los hijos de nuestros hijos, debido a que nuestra escala temporal actual sólo puede aprehender una pequeña parte de lo que está en camino. Si comenzamos por descubrir las tecnologías más remotas, lo que nos auguran estos expertos es que en 2051 el Reino Unido tendrá un equipo de fútbol formado íntegramente por robots, que para ese entonces habrá desaparecido completamente el agujero de la capa de ozono, que las comunicaciones telepáticas se habrán hecho corrientes entre las personas y que la información contenida en un cerebro humano podrá desde esa fecha ser transferida a un soporte artificial (los cerebros artificiales existirán desde 2040). El viaje a través del tiempo, los primeros contactos con inteligencias extraterrestres, la circulación de personas a través del ciberespacio, los viajes a una velocidad superior a la de la luz o el colapso de la economía internacional, son escenarios relegados más allá de 2050, sin fecha posible. Son los más especulativos.
Futuro y presente Lo más probable, sin embargo, es que en 2046 se haya consolidado la energía nuclear de fusión (un aliento para el proyecto ITER), que en 2041 exista una pequeña ciudad en la Luna, que en 2036 tengamos el primer ascensor espacial, que en 2031 los robots sean ya más inteligentes que nosotros, que en 2026 haya combates de boxeo entre androides, que en 2021 los yogurts (que incorporarán circuitos electrónicos de ADN en sus bacterias) nos cuenten chistes (ver al respecto lo que dice The Guardian), que en 2016 los coches sean pilotados automáticamente, que en 2017 podamos ir de vacaciones a un hotel en órbita, que en 2011 los robots cuiden nuestros jardines, o que el año que viene el ordenador procese más rápidamente que una persona. Todo esto no es sino una caricatura de los escenarios tecnológicos previsibles descritos en el informe BT, que menciona también la posibilidad de que en 2012 existan azulejos de vídeo en el cuarto de baño para entretener a los niños, o paredes pintadas en el hogar que cambian de aspecto para estimular la energía vital, la felicidad o la calma. No es la primera vez que BT realiza este ejercicio: uno anterior realizado en los años noventa alcanzó un grado de exactitud de entre el 80% y el 90%. En cualquier caso, no debemos olvidar que el objetivo de estos ejercicios no es hacer una quiniela para acertar o no respecto a lo que puede ocurrir. La finalidad principal de la prospectiva es diseñar escenarios de futuro posibles con la finalidad de que estas perspectivas razonables de evolución nos permitan adoptar las mejores decisiones en el presente. Hay que imaginar qué puede ocurrir en los próximos años para adaptar nuestra mentalidad, nuestra profesión o nuestra actividad empresarial a esas posibles evoluciones. Es la mejor manera de vivir el presente. Escenarios más destacados Esquemáticamente, este es el resumen de las evoluciones tecnológicas de los próximos años que nos han parecido más llamativas:
2006-2010: juguetes emotivos, un grupo pop de inteligencia artificial se sitúa entre los 10 primeros del mundo, Internet llega al teatro, un superordenador más rápido que el cerebro humano, teléfonos móviles que transmiten emociones, pantallas flexibles... 2008-2012: mediacamentos suministrados a través de fruta modificada genéticamente, vídeotatuajes, tejidos sensibles que informan de la salud de una persona, clases mediante telepresencia, publicidad holográfica, aparato que traduce una conversaciòn en tiempo real... 2011-2015: coche pilotado automáticamente, regeneración dental gracias a la terapia genética, desaparición del papel moneda, el 60% de la población mundial vive en ciudades, robots-insectos ayudan a la polinización, robots jardineros, control de velocidad automático en las calles, ordenadores que duermen... 2013-2017: maquillaje electrónico que cambia de color, robots que guían a los ciegos por las calles, el 50% de la población mundial accede a Internet, juguetes nanotecnológicos, vídeos holográficos, hoteles en órbita, el genoma individual forma parte del historial médico, reconocimiento internacional de la cybernacionalidad… 2016-2020: se protegen jurídicamente las formas de vida electrónicas, los espectadores se convierten en los actores de las películas que ven, los objetos electrónicos permiten controlar las emociones, los androides representan al 10% de la población mundial, la policía se privatiza, las flores son kaleidoscópicas… 2021-2025: traducción inmediata automática, televisión en 3D, primera olimpiada biónica, almacenamiento bioquímico de la energía solar, primera misión a Marte, yogurt chistoso, tecnología antiruidos en los jardines… 2026-2030: impresoras 3D en los hogares, primer e-bebé emsamblado genéticamente, plena conexión con el cerebro, circuitos hechos con bacterias, combates deportivos de androides, factorías espaciales para el comercio interestelar… 2031-2035: posibilidad de ralentizar el metabolismo humano para permitir los viajes espaciales, ordenadores más inteligentes que las personas, animales domésticos diseñados a medida, juegos que usan la genética real, creación de “The Matrix”... 2036-2040: inauguración del primer ascensor espacial, estaciones de energía solar, escaparates virtuales, primer kil mecano-fractal… 2041-2045: primera ciudad lunar con servicio regular de transbordador, la poblaciòn mundial alcanza los 10.000 millones, la energía de las olas cubre el 50% de la demanda en el Reino Unido… 2046-2050: una pequeña colonia de cientificos se establece en Marte en una ciudad autosuficiente, llega el cerebro artificial, se impone la energía nuclear de fusión, se extraen minerales de los asteroides, 2051 + : los pensamientos, sentimientos y recuerdos se transfieren a un ordenador, desaparece el agujero de la capa de ozono, la expectativa de vida llega a los 100 años, la comunicación telepática se generaliza, se consigue el viaje a través del tiempo, colapso financiero internacional, desplazamientos de personas en el ciberespacio…
Otros escenarios La prospectiva ofrecida por BT no es la única. Social Technologies ha realizado también un amplio diseño de escenarios que pinta cómo será el mundo en 2025 a partir de quince categorías. Es una visión más social que tecnológica no exenta de atractivo y rigor. Está realizada por la consultora Coates & Jarratt, Inc. De Jpseph Coates ya publicamos en esta revista (2002) Un programa de Ciencia y Tecnología para el Siglo XXI. En un horizonte aún más amplio podemos consultar los Escenarios 2100 realizados por Thierry Gaudin. Se trata de una obra realizada el siglo pasado pero de gran envergadura: 2100: récit du prochain siècle. Publicada en 1993, esta obra conserva hoy toda su vigencia. Thierry Gaudin, que pertenece al Consejo Editorial de Tendencias21, acaba de publicar ahora un nuevo libro: La Prospective, en el que señala que el tránsito de una civilización industrial a otra cognitiva transforma las profesiones y las actividades sociales. En su relato del próximo siglo, Thierry Gaudin describe la probable evolución de la sociedad humana hasta el año 2100. Dos grandes etapas caracterizarán este proceso: a una etapa de degradación social que ahora estaríamos atravesando, le seguiría un período de reacción social positiva basado en programas de educación masivos, rediseño de las ciudades y la reforestación. El siglo XXI termina según estos escenarios con el predominio de los valores femeninos, religiosos y de sensibilidad. La principal riqueza de esta obra radica en su amplitud temática, su carácter interdisciplinar y el hecho de que en su elaboración han participado expertos de todas las culturas.
Skype pone a prueba un software para el mercado masivo de teléfonos móviles
Siguiendo con nuestras últimas acciones destinadas a extender las conversaciones a través de Skype a una amplia variedad de nuevos dispositivos móviles y sin cables, Skype da un paso más y va a empezar a converger su software de comunicaciones por Internet con los teléfonos móviles. Hoy, la compañía ha lanzado la versión beta de “Skype para tu Teléfono Móvil”, programa que funciona en 50 de los teléfonos más populares con Java, como Motorota, Nokia, Samsung o Sony Ericsson.
Entre las funciones que incluye la versión beta de “Skype para tu Teléfono Móvil” tenemos: chat, chat en grupo, la posibilidad de ver cuándo tus contactos están online y recepción de llamadas de Skype y de SkypeIn, todo ello con un interfaz muy sencillo de usar. Otras funciones adicionales como la posibilidad de realizar llamadas entre usuarios de Skype y Llamadas SkypeOut™ a través de tu móvil estarán inicialmente disponibles en 7 mercados: Brasil (Rio de Janeiro), Dinamarca, Estonia, Finlandia, Polonia, Suecia y Reino Unido. "Aunque todavía estamos en los inicios de ofrecer llamadas de Skype en teléfonos móviles, ya estamos hacienda grandes avances en este campo” comenta Gareth O'Loughlin, Manager General de Dispositivos Móviles de Skype. "Tenemos que tener en cuenta que gracias a las buenas relaciones con la operadora de móviles “3” hemos conseguido que 8 mercados ya tengan acceso a 3Skypephone, el teléfono móvil de Skype; Lo que conseguiremos con Skype para tu Teléfono Móvil será expandir las opciones de tener Skype en un teléfono móvil de ahora en adelante”. "Mientras que Skype para tu Teléfono Móvil sea beta,” añade O’Loughlin, "es un tiempo perfecto para escuchar los comentarios y sugerencias de nuestros usuarios a través de forums y encuestas. Necesitamos escuchar qué es lo que les gusta y dónde hace falta seguir trabajando. Este nuevo producto pone de manifiesto nuestro compromiso con la innovación con el objetivo de poner las conversaciones de Skype en los bolsillos del gran número de usuarios de móviles”. Con esta versión beta, Skype para tu Teléfono Móvil entra en un periodo público de prueba que ayudará a Skype a medir la respuesta de sus usuarios tecnológicamente avanzados; con sus sugerencias y comentarios podremos mejorar la oferta. Está previsto que esta fase dure unos cuantos meses, después de los cuales se hará pública una versión definitiva que estará disponible para millones de usuarios de móviles de todo el planeta.Hay dos opciones para conseguir la versión beta de Skype para tu Teléfono Móvil: bajártela directamente a un móvil compatible con el programa o bajártelo a tu ordenador y luego transferir el programa al móvil. Para más instrucciones, visitar la siguiente página: www.skype.com/go/mobiledownload . Esta página también incluye un directorio con los teléfonos móviles compatibles con el programa y una lista con los mercados en los que todas las funciones están disponibles. Con el tiempo se añadirán más modelos de teléfonos y mercados.
Fuentes: www.skype.com
Entre las funciones que incluye la versión beta de “Skype para tu Teléfono Móvil” tenemos: chat, chat en grupo, la posibilidad de ver cuándo tus contactos están online y recepción de llamadas de Skype y de SkypeIn, todo ello con un interfaz muy sencillo de usar. Otras funciones adicionales como la posibilidad de realizar llamadas entre usuarios de Skype y Llamadas SkypeOut™ a través de tu móvil estarán inicialmente disponibles en 7 mercados: Brasil (Rio de Janeiro), Dinamarca, Estonia, Finlandia, Polonia, Suecia y Reino Unido. "Aunque todavía estamos en los inicios de ofrecer llamadas de Skype en teléfonos móviles, ya estamos hacienda grandes avances en este campo” comenta Gareth O'Loughlin, Manager General de Dispositivos Móviles de Skype. "Tenemos que tener en cuenta que gracias a las buenas relaciones con la operadora de móviles “3” hemos conseguido que 8 mercados ya tengan acceso a 3Skypephone, el teléfono móvil de Skype; Lo que conseguiremos con Skype para tu Teléfono Móvil será expandir las opciones de tener Skype en un teléfono móvil de ahora en adelante”. "Mientras que Skype para tu Teléfono Móvil sea beta,” añade O’Loughlin, "es un tiempo perfecto para escuchar los comentarios y sugerencias de nuestros usuarios a través de forums y encuestas. Necesitamos escuchar qué es lo que les gusta y dónde hace falta seguir trabajando. Este nuevo producto pone de manifiesto nuestro compromiso con la innovación con el objetivo de poner las conversaciones de Skype en los bolsillos del gran número de usuarios de móviles”. Con esta versión beta, Skype para tu Teléfono Móvil entra en un periodo público de prueba que ayudará a Skype a medir la respuesta de sus usuarios tecnológicamente avanzados; con sus sugerencias y comentarios podremos mejorar la oferta. Está previsto que esta fase dure unos cuantos meses, después de los cuales se hará pública una versión definitiva que estará disponible para millones de usuarios de móviles de todo el planeta.Hay dos opciones para conseguir la versión beta de Skype para tu Teléfono Móvil: bajártela directamente a un móvil compatible con el programa o bajártelo a tu ordenador y luego transferir el programa al móvil. Para más instrucciones, visitar la siguiente página: www.skype.com/go/mobiledownload . Esta página también incluye un directorio con los teléfonos móviles compatibles con el programa y una lista con los mercados en los que todas las funciones están disponibles. Con el tiempo se añadirán más modelos de teléfonos y mercados.
Fuentes: www.skype.com
Google lanza los anuncios con imágenes para móvil
Google informa de la disponibilidad de anuncios para móviles con imágenes.
En el comunicado Google se reafirma en su apuesta por el mercado emergente de la publicidad móvil ampliando las opciones para anunciantes y soportes que hasta ahora se limitaban a anuncios de texto. Por otra parte veo que no han seguido las directrices de la Mobile Marketing Association para publicidad móvil en cuanto a las especificaciones técnicas de los Banners. En la siguiente imagen se pueden ver las disponibles en AdWords que no coinciden con las propuestas por la MMA. Esta es una pequeña barrera para la estandarización, que es un factor clave para un desarrollo más rápido de este canal y para conseguir la confianza de los anunciantes.
Al igual que los actuales anuncios Web, los anuncios móviles con imágenes estarán relacionados con palabras clave de búsqueda, serán tarificados por coste-por-click y deberán enlazar obligatoriamente con una página web optimizada para teléfonos móviles.
Por el momento estos nuncios están disponibles en 13 países: Australia, China, Francia, Alemania, India, Irlanda, Japón, Holanda, Rusia, España, Reino Unido y Estados Unidos.
Fuente: www.aecomo.org
En el comunicado Google se reafirma en su apuesta por el mercado emergente de la publicidad móvil ampliando las opciones para anunciantes y soportes que hasta ahora se limitaban a anuncios de texto. Por otra parte veo que no han seguido las directrices de la Mobile Marketing Association para publicidad móvil en cuanto a las especificaciones técnicas de los Banners. En la siguiente imagen se pueden ver las disponibles en AdWords que no coinciden con las propuestas por la MMA. Esta es una pequeña barrera para la estandarización, que es un factor clave para un desarrollo más rápido de este canal y para conseguir la confianza de los anunciantes.
Al igual que los actuales anuncios Web, los anuncios móviles con imágenes estarán relacionados con palabras clave de búsqueda, serán tarificados por coste-por-click y deberán enlazar obligatoriamente con una página web optimizada para teléfonos móviles.
Por el momento estos nuncios están disponibles en 13 países: Australia, China, Francia, Alemania, India, Irlanda, Japón, Holanda, Rusia, España, Reino Unido y Estados Unidos.
Fuente: www.aecomo.org
miércoles, 7 de mayo de 2008
SMS, esa maravillosa herramienta de marketing
Los teléfonos móviles se han mostrado como la herramienta tecnológica más versátil de la actualidad. Aparte de su servicio básico de telefonía, también sirven para financiar los numerosos concursos de la televisión.El único reducto hasta ahora vedado a los móviles lo constituyen las zonas sin cobertura, que poco a poco las operadoras están solucionando. Los aviones hasta ahora también constituían terreno prohibido para el uso del móvil, pero las nuevas normas de la Comunidad Europea permitirán su uso cuando los aviones lleguen a su cota de crucero. El triunfo del teléfono móvil es evidente en un país como España donde hay más líneas que habitantes.Esto permite que los terminales sean vistos por parte de todo el espectro de la industria como un excelente medio para la venta de contenidos de todo tipo. Si el mercado de la música no ha sufrido la hecatombe total ha sido gracias a la proliferación de los conciertos en vivo, un eficaz método de generar ingresos, y sobre todo, por la descarga masiva de tonos, politonos o mp3 para los terminales de telefonía móvil.También, los teléfonos son eficaces plataformas para recibir mensajes publicitarios y enviar publicidad a medida del perfil de cada usuario. Aunque esta actividad roza peligrosamente con el mundo oscuro del “spam”.El poder de la teleSegún se muestra en el último informe sobre desarrollo de la Sociedad de la Información en España correspondiente al año 2007 que acaba de publicar la Fundación Telefónica, los intercambios de mensajes cortos -tanto de texto como multimedia- y la descarga de tonos y juegos siguen siendo los servicios más utilizados por los españoles con su teléfono móvil.Con este panorama, los móviles han cambiado incluso los hábitos de los canales de televisión. Los espacios, ya sean concursos o debates políticos, han creado sistemas informáticos para que cualquiera envíe un SMS con su opinión sobre tal tema de actualidad, la famosa de turno o participe en un concurso televisivo.Incluso, Eurovisión se ha apuntado a la moda del SMS con resultados que a algunos les puede parecer el fin de la cultura musical y a otros, la completa democratización del conocido Festival.Una de las empresas que gestionan los servicios de plataformas de SMS para televisión es Jet Multimedia. La compañía según su informe sobre la actualidad del mercado ha indicado que el envío de SMS destinados a concursos y programas de televisión creció hasta el 6,7 por ciento durante el pasado año 2007.Los estudios de Jet indican que el mercado de marketing móvil en España - publicidad y promociones basadas en la tecnología SMS y MMS Premium- será de 126 millones de euros en 2009. Estos datos no incluyen precisamente la facturación proveniente del mercado de canales de televisión, por lo que se espera unas cifras de negocio mucho mayores.Los móviles son pequeños, fáciles de usar y cada vez cuentan con más servicios. Monederos electrónicos o las capturas de promociones publicitarias mediante su cámara integradas son sólo algunas de las nuevas medidas de marketing “no agresivo” que se avecinan, y mientras tanto, muchos programas de televisión se autofinancian gracias a la “necesidad” de los espectadores de formar parte de la comunidad global de la información.
Publicidad On-line superara a la de la TV
Un informe de Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB), PricewaterhouseCoopers y World Advertising Research Centre, señala que Internet sustituirá a la televisión como el principal medio publicitario en Reino Unido a finales de 2009.El informe de Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB), PricewaterhouseCoopers y World Advertising Research Centre señala que Reino Unido tiene el mercado publicitario online más desarrollado del mundo, valorado en 3.560 millones de euros en 2007.El El informe de Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB), PricewaterhouseCoopers y World Advertising Research Centre añáde que el incremento de la publicidad en internet fue del 38 % y estuvo guiado por el creciente número de usuarios de Internet, la introducción de ordenadores baratos además de la creciente popularidad de la televisión en Internet a través de servicios como el 4oD de Channel 4.Guy Phillipson, presidente de la IAB, dijo en un comunicado que dada el alza de las velocidades de banda ancha y que los consumidores pasan más tiempo en más sitios. Guy Phillipson dijo que la perspectiva para la publicidad online es prometedora ya que confían que supere a la televisión en 2009 y precisamente será el próximo año cuando la publicidad online se convertirá en el gran medio en Reino Unido.El informe de Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB), PricewaterhouseCoopers y World Advertising Research Centre indica que Internet ha sido el gran motor del extraordinario incremento de la publicidad el pasado año, y que el sector entero en Reino Unido estaba experimentando un crecimiento del 4,3 %, hasta 18.400 millones de libras. El estudo añade otrros datos como que el gasto en anuncios online tuvo una franja de mercado del 15,3 %, por encima del 11,4 % en 2006, pero por detrás de los anuncios en prensa, con un 19,9 %, y de televisión, con un 21,8 %.Fuente: Theslogan Magazine
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